01.09.25 - 05.09.25
Results of the previous week
| NG +6.48% | XAUUSD +3.83% | NQ +1.10% |
COFFEE -3.23% | AMC -2.84% | BRN -2.36% |
US indices showed mixed movements last week, reflecting investors' uncertainty about what the US Federal Reserve will do with its monetary policy. In the second half of the week, indices reacted to weaker-than-expected ADP National Employment data. This strengthened expectations that the Fed will cut its key interest rate at its September meeting.
The dollar was able to develop an upward correction against most major opponents. This was largely due to previously released Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, which hinted at rising inflation. Gold was the exception. It hit a new all-time high as geopolitical risks persist and the legal battle over the attempted dismissal of Fed governor Lisa Cook continues.
Over the course of the month, Brent crude oil prices have consolidated between $65.00 and $69.30. Concerns about the global economic outlook and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting are holding prices back from rising further. The oil cartel is expected to adopt further increases in production volumes, which will increase the imbalance in supply and demand.
Key events of the current week
| ECB rates decision EUR/USD | DATE 11.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy is showing relatively low growth rates due to the weakness of key sectors in the largest Eurozone economies. In Germany and France, major companies are cutting production amid rising energy prices and high US tariffs on European goods. The negative movement seen in macroeconomic reports indicates that the ECB will need to stimulate the economy. However, the risks of rising inflation at this stage prevent the European regulator from quickly cutting its key rate. Keeping it unchanged in the short term is favourable to the euro. In this context, EUR/USD could continue to rise to 1.1800. | |||||
| The US. Inflation rate XAU/USD | DATE 11.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
According to released data, the US PCE Price Index came in at 2.9% year over year, exceeding the forecast of 2.8%. This indicates that inflation is high in the US. Global analysts expect inflation to continue to rise. That means that the Fed will have a reason to refrain from easing its monetary policy further. A high interest rate is good news for the dollar, but it's unfavourable for gold, which is denominated in it. In this context, XAU/USD could develop a downward correction to 3,525.00. | |||||
| The US. Consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan USD/JPY | DATE 12.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US Consumer Sentiment Index has hit a three-month low. Global analysts expect it to continue to drop, reflecting Americans' uncertainty about their future amid a cooling labour market and rising inflation. The decline of key macroeconomic indicators, uncertainty about Trump's trade policy, and lower confidence in the dollar as Trump attempts to infringe on the Federal Reserve's independence are negative factors for the dollar. In this case, USD/JPY could fall to 146.60. | |||||
